Professional MLB sports bettors treat wagering as a business. The sheer volume of baseball games that are played each week means that the avid bettor has to work hard to keep up on the latest news, odds, and matchups. Here’s a solid outline of daily activities that baseball bettors should engage in to ensure that they prepared to make smart bets every day.
Checking the Odds
Part of the baseball sports bettor’s daily routine is checking the latest odds. Odds should be monitored throughout the day, as new spreads, run lines, and totals are published. Odds will often change, sometimes to your benefit and other times working against you.
Baseball offers both the money line and run line. The bet that you choose depends upon what type of odds favor your wager. The money line is useful if you believe the underdog will win outright, or if you think it will be close but the favorite will win. The run line, which is usually at +/-1.5 runs, will work if you feel the favorite will take the game by at least two runs.
The over/under for baseball tends to range from six to nine runs. If you anticipate a pitching duel, then the under usually makes sense. The over is a better bet when the two teams have weak starting pitching, solid hitting, and problematic relief.
These are general guidelines and in no way circumvent or override solid handicapping habits. Before placing any baseball bets, always perform careful statistical analysis.
Baseball odds are based on the listed starters taking the mound and throwing a pitch. If either of the starters does not begin the game on the mound then all bets are off, and wagers are returned. That being the case, it is obviously important that sports bettors handicap baseball games by first focusing on the pitching. Along with doing an analysis of each starter, sports bettors need to evaluate the entire bullpen. Due to the fact that pitchers dominate so much of the game’s action, it is critical that professional bettors look at the entire staff. One blown save can ruin an otherwise great game.
Reading the News
Keeping up on the latest baseball news is also very important. Trades, roster moves, injuries, and any lineup changes must be considered before you ever place a bet. For convenience, you can have news updates sent to your phone to make this process easier and keep you in the loop.
Of course, along with analyzing pitching, you will need to anticipate how hitters will perform against starters and relief pitchers. Are there hitters who match up well against the opponent’s starter? How strong are the fielders? If this is a close game might a miscue in the field make a difference? Will speed on the bases be a major factor? Will this be a strategic game of small ball, or are two powerful offenses competing? These are questions that can be answered when you go through each roster.
Another important element to consider is the possibility that one team’s hitters will wear down the starter and get to a weak or tired bullpen. If the game is close in the late innings, who has the advantage?
A team at the beginning of the season is much different from one in the middle of July, when the long summer games start to pile up. Any number of factors can determine a team’s rate of success: A sudden rash of injuries, a particularly long road trip, or even an extra-inning game that has depleted the bullpen. The baseball season is long, rigorous, and unforgiving.
Motivation also plays a role. If a team is out of playoff contention in late summer, they might call up new players, while a team fighting for the pennant will ride its starters all the way to the playoffs.
When you decide on which games you will wager, make sure that you use betting units in a responsible manner. Wager only four to five units on games that you consider to be sure things. Two or (at most) three unit bets should be common, and there is nothing wrong with placing a one-unit wager. It’s better to wager more games and fewer units per game than few games with large unit bets, as this lowers your risk per bet. Never risk more than 6% of your bank on one wager. This helps guard against a big loss that can cripple your season.
Risk and Bankroll Management
Ultimately, your daily routine is an attempt to lower your risk. By wagering only after you have all of the necessary information, you will be better prepared to make a smart, informed bet. When betting on the baseball games of your choice, you will make unit wagers that are designed to lower your risk and increase your chances of winning. Make your daily work pay off as often as possible, and by the end of the MLB season, you’ll be ahead of the game.