Smart and experienced sports bettors can often spot an upset, utilize numerous betting units to make a great value bet, and win big. But why can some sports bettors see an upset in the making while others cannot? Experienced bettors simply know what to look for before they wager. Here are five tell-tale signs that an upset might be on the horizon.
Top teams with significant injury issues – or with guys trying to play through the pain – are often vulnerable to an upset-minded underdog. Good teams can often mask health problems for a certain period of time, but eventually it will catch up with them. The upset may not happen immediately, but if a good team has been playing multiple games shorthanded, take a closer look at their upcoming matchups.
On the Road
All teams, even the great ones, can suffer on a tough road trip. Take a look at recent games: Have they had to travel a long distance for the game? Often, a West Coast team will struggle with the time zone change if they travel east. You might find that the matchup favors the home team simply because they have a great crowd. Student sections can often inspire teams to play above their talent level.
A team that goes on a long winning streak can often become complacent. This is especially true after a string of blowout wins, or with a much weaker opponent on the schedule. It is natural for a strong team to overlook one or two games in preparation for a better opponent. Target these “trap” games.
A String of Wins
On the other hand, a string of quality wins can often produce the opposite effect on a team. Instead of becoming complacent, they will start to tighten up because of the pressure of the streak. They start thinking about the undefeated season instead of focusing on one game at a time – as a result, mistakes happen.
A Key Mismatch
Although statistically, one team might appear inferior to the favorite, in reality they might have a key mismatch that makes all the difference. Perhaps they have a marksman from three-point range or play a system that gives the favorite a lot of trouble. Think back to when Princeton used to upset major power schools because of their use of back-door cuts and fundamental ball. An underdog only needs to find a small crack that they can exploit.
Upsets Happen Every Season
Consider this: In the history of Division I college basketball, only seven teams have successfully completed an undefeated season. It simply does not happen very often. So when the next season rolls around, be on the lookout for upset specials. Developing the ability to spot upsets is a rewarding and lucrative pursuit.
Each week, look for the key factors outlined here to see if you can identify a potential upset. Also, be advised that such upsets are more likely to happen in the mid-part of the season. When a club is somewhere around game 14 to 18, they will be susceptible to many of the situations outlined in this article.