It’s the savvy college football bettor who can recognize value in a game that will yield a major upset. Those bettors who know how to do this will make cash in both the short term and long run.
When it comes to betting on college football and the point spread, too many bettors (particularly those who are uneducated and uninformed about NCAA football) take the favorite. This is despite the fact that the favorite, especially against the spread, does not usually make for a good bet. Of course, when looking for a true upset, an advantageous money line can offer opportunities for you to make a killing.
There Are Upsets, and Then There Are Upsets
There are two types of upsets in college football betting. The first involves a favorite that wins the game, but does so while underperforming and thus does not beat the spread. The second type of upset is the true upset, where the underdog actually wins the game outright.
Either one will pay off for you, but being able to value bet on the second can be money in the bank. This is especially true when it comes to money line betting, as you risk little for a solid payout. Here are some things to look for when trying to find upsets that you can exploit.
Too Much Hype
Sometimes games and the favorites are simply overhyped. This may occur if a powerhouse team is on a hot streak and looks unbeatable, or it may happen if a seemingly mediocre club is torching their opponent in every game.
Somewhere in the mid to late part of the college football season, the mighty will fall. Look for games that have a lot of hype in which commentators are trying to make a club seem as if it’s destined to win every game. Know that at some point they will lose track of their destiny, and they will lose.
Injuries and Stamina
Partway through the college football season, a key injury can turn a winning team into a losing one. Keep current on the status of all players, and understand how much depth a team has off the bench. Along with injuries, teams also get tired in the middle to late part of the season. Which teams have been affected by all of the wear and tear they have endured? Consider clubs that have had to deal with injuries fairly early on or that have met very tough opponents in the first half of the season. They may be ready to tank in their next game.
Coaching and Schemes
How good is the coaching? Does the coach and his staff members have the ability to create schemes that challenge their opponents? Is the underdog a club that has come close to pulling off upsets in the first half of the season? Is there some aspect of team matchups that a savvy coach might exploit?
Is the favorite looking complacent? Maybe they are coming off of a major win that has everyone impressed, or perhaps they have been ordained the team to beat. Anything that may create a David and Goliath matchup, especially if the underdog has an advantage in terms of coaching, depth, or the ability to make adjustments during the game, may give the underdog an advantage.
Shop Around for Soft Spreads and Good Lines
In taking all of the above points into consideration, you may find a potential upset that offers you a golden opportunity to make some cash. Money lines will favor those who are betting the underdog – if you are right, you stand to make a significant profit. In the realm of upsets, you may discover some early point spreads that will be tough for even the best team to cover. Look for these when shopping around for college football upsets on which you can bet.