The Gambler’s Fallacy is an important concept that all bettors need to understand. If you employ this mistaken betting system, it will greatly undercut your ability to profit from sports betting.
Gambler’s Fallacy Explained
The Gambler’s Fallacy is a belief that all outcomes even out. It is best illustrated by the flip of a coin. It’s commonly accepted that if you flip a coin a certain number of times, it will land in equal amounts on heads or tails. In other words, if I flip a coin 100 times, according to the Gambler’s Fallacy, it will come up heads fifty times and tails fifty times.
In our scenario, let’s say we flip the coin forty times, resulting in thirty on tails and ten on heads. According to the Gambler’s Fallacy, at some point the number of heads will catch up to the number of tails. However, this is not necessarily true.
The fact is that each flip of the coin is an action unto itself and the outcome of one toss is independent of all others. There is no reason that the number of heads and number of tails should even out. It is true that each time you flip the coin there’s a 50-50 chance that it will come up either heads or tails, but that does not mean that the overall results will split evenly. It simply means that the odds are even concerning which side of the coin is exposed after it has been tossed.
The Gambler’s Fallacy and Sports Betting
Unfortunately, many sports bettors believe in the Gambler’s Fallacy. Each game you bet is like each toss of the coin. You must remember that for each matchup there is only one of two possible outcomes and the result of the first game you wager on has no effect on the result of the second.
Those who wager on sports often believe that a series of losses will be followed by a series of wins. This is not true. A series of losses may be followed by one or two or a series of wins – or even more losses.
This is because sports bettors often invoke the “law of averages” when they make a wager. The law of averages dictates that eventually outcomes will even out. However, if this were the case then no one would ever make or lose money at sports betting. Everyone would simply break even, and everyone knows that just doesn’t happen. Some people win more than they lose, and others lose more than they win, and some just break even.
If sports followed the law of averages, at the end of the MLB season, thirty teams would have 81 wins and 81 losses. It’s rare to find one team with that record.
Adding Your Wins and Losses
As your wins and losses add up, you’ll need to make continuous adjustments as you refine your handicapping skills and use various tools to pick winners consistently. If you’re losing, don’t rely on fate, magic or a good luck charm to turn the tide. In order to get back on the right track, you’ll need to objectively reevaluate how you’re making your picks. Do not rely on the Gambler’s Fallacy to save you, because it won’t. Solid handicapping, finding value in odds, and smart utilization of betting units will make you a winner.