When you’re taking part in professional sports betting, should you have a sports gambling system? Some people swear by systems and others simply won’t use them. In this article we’re going to look at two free systems: the Kelly Criterion and the Martingale System.
Both offer specific guidelines on how much to wager on a given contest. These sports gambling systems focus on one of the most important aspects of wagering: money management.
The Kelly Criterion was created by physicist Edward L. Kelly, who developed the system in 1956 when he was working for AT&T Bell Laboratories. It was originally intended to be used for thoroughbred racing, but it has since been used by gamblers in other sports.
The Kelly Criterion is a three-step sports gambling system that is based on statistical analysis. It is helpful in determining how much of your bankroll you should bet on a given event. Here are the steps:
- Multiply the odds of the game or event by the probability of winning.
- Use the product and subtract from it the probability of losing the bet.
- Divide the result of the second step by the odds.
Here’s an example of how to use the Kelly Criterion for sports betting:
- First you need to estimate how many of your bets you will win. Let’s say it’s 60% or .600. Then you need to consider the odds involved. If a team is at -300 on the money line, then the odds of them winning are 75% (.750). You multiply these two numbers: .60 x .75 = .450
- Next you need to know your failure rate. If your success rate is 60%, then your failure rate is 100%- 60% = 40% (.400). Take the answer from Step 1 and subtract the failure rate: .450- .400 = .050.
- Finally, take the answer to Step 2, which is .050, and divide it by the odds of winning, which is .750. The answer is .066 or 6.6%
Thus, using the Kelly Criterion you would wager 6.6% of your bankroll on the game. Note: this system really only works when you’re wagering on the favored team. It’s suggested that you use this sports gambling system as a guideline, figuring in other factors before deciding how much to wager. Still, it is a good guide to how much you should risk on a given wager.
In 18th century France, a collection of wagering systems was created and named the Martingale System. Today, the gambling system that bears its name utilizes just one of the original methods.
The Martingale System starts with the gambler wagering one unit on an event. If they win, they bet one unit on the next contest. Once they lose, they double their wager on the next event. If they lose again, they double their bet again. They continue doubling until they win. Then the bettor goes back to a single unit wager.
The idea behind the Martingale System is that even after losing, eventually the bettors will win a doubled wager and make back all of their losses. Although many people try this system, there are three major flaws:
- If you keep losing, this system stresses out your bankroll very quickly.
- Even after doubling up, you don’t win back all of your cash. This is because you cannot regain the commissions lost.
- The system is based on the belief that eventually you must win a bet. However, all wagers are independent occurrences with none affecting the others. So the belief itself is flawed.
If you’re making online wagers and trying to establish yourself in professional sports betting, beware of this sports gambling system. Although some sports bettors swear by it, the Martingale System can use up your cash quickly.
The Usefulness of a System
In sports betting, no system takes away the need to analyze each team and matchup. Still, money management is key. The Kelly Criterion can help you in this area, while the Martingale System is for the truly aggressive gambler who is willing to repeatedly take high risks.